Campi Flegrei: Will there be more tremors after March 13? What the experts say

Written by Julia Altavilla
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After the earthquake of magnitude 4.4 which affected i Campi Flegrei il 13 March, many people are wondering if there will be further tremors and how the situation will evolve. According to Carlo Doglioni, president ofNational Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), new seismic events are possible and are part of the normal activity of the area. The earthquake has been defined as an event superficial, felt intensely by the population, but without evidence of phenomena linked to an imminent eruption.

The earthquake of March 13 and its intensity

The earthquake recorded at1:25 of March 13 had a epicenter between Pozzuoli and Bagnoli, to a depth of 2,5 km. Its magnitude of 4.4 making it one of the strongest events recorded in the area in recent years. An earthquake of equal intensity had already occurred on 20 May 2024, with an epicenter always in the Campi Flegrei. The type of seismic events is linked to the phenomenon of bradyseism, a rising of the ground typical of the Phlegraean area due to underground pressure.

According to Doglioni, the shock of March 13 had a significant impact because the energy was released on the surface, amplifying the perception of the telluric movement and causing falling debris and minor damage to buildings, as happened in Bagnoli and Pozzuoli.

Possible new tremors: what to expect?

Experts agree that further tremors could occur in the next few days or weeks. The phenomenon of seismic swarm It is typical of volcanic areas such as the Campi Flegrei, where earthquakes can occur with variable frequency. According to Doglioni, seismic activity is strictly linked to the resurgence of ground uplift, a phenomenon that indicates the internal dynamics of the volcano but which, at the moment, does not suggest an imminent eruption.

Factors to consider:

  • Bradyseismic activity continues to increase, with the ground rising at a rate of about 3 cm per month.
  • Future tremors could have variable magnitude, with low intensity episodes alternating with stronger events.
  • Authorities are constantly monitoring the situation to ensure the safety of the population.

Is there a risk of an eruption?

One of the most widespread fears is that seismic activity could anticipate a volcanic eruption. But according to Doglioni, there are no signs of magma rising that could suggest an imminent eruption. INGV studies indicate that the magma could cool at depth or remain static without rising to the surface.

The analyses of the INGV and theVesuvius Observatory continue to monitor gas emissions and geochemical changes in the subsurface, which are key parameters for identifying any significant changes. At the moment, the data collected does not indicate any alterations that could suggest an immediate danger.

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