What Italy needs to qualify for the 2024 European Championship round of XNUMX

Tonight at 21 Italy will face Croatia in one decisive match for qualification for the round of 16 of the European Football Championships. Our national team, currently second in group B with 3 points, has several possibilities ahead of him to pass the round and continue his journey in the tournament.

Let's analyze the different combinations that can take Italy to the round of 16.

What is the current situation of group B

At the moment, the Group B ranking sees Spain in the lead with 6 points, followed by Italy with 3 points. Croatia and Albania are both a 1 point. This means that, with a win or a draw against Croatia, Italy would guarantee second place and qualification heading to the round of 16.

Here is the ranking of group B:

Spain: 6 points
Italy: 3 points
Croatia: 1 point
Albania: 1 point

The conditions for Italy's direct qualification

For Italy, there are several favorable combinations to guarantee passage to the round of 16. With a win or a draw against Croatia, our national team would be sure to finish in second place in group B. Even if Albania were to win against Spain and Italy were to draw, the advantage of the direct clash (2-1 for Italy) would still ensure the second place.

Victory against Croatia: direct qualification as second in group B.
Draw against Croatia: direct qualification as second in group B.
Albania's victory against Spain + Italy draw: direct qualification thanks to the advantage in the direct clash.

What happens if Italy loses against Croatia

If Italy were to lose against Croatia, could still qualify to the round of 16 as one of the best third-placed teams. But be careful: it all depends on different conditions.

The first condition is that Albania does not beat Spain. If Albania won against Spain and Italy lost against Croatia, our national team would close the group in last place and it would be eliminated. If instead Albania does not win, the goal difference would become decisive.

Currently, Italy has a goal difference of zero. In case of defeat against Croatia, the goal difference would drop to -1 (or worse, depending on the margin of defeat). To overcome Hungary, currently third in group A with 3 points and a goal difference of -3, to Italy it would be enough to lose by no more than two goals. At that point, it would be enough for one of the third-placed teams in the other groups to score fewer points or have a worse goal difference.