Syria, how did we get to the fall of Assad and what does it entail? (Insight)

A long, complex and deeply rooted conflict: Syria today represents a geopolitical and social fault line extremely important for the balances in the Mediterranean and therefore for us Italians.
In this article we will retrace the main historical events that have marked the territory in the last hundred years so as to understand how we got to the current situation, and then analyse how we got to the current crisis with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime and what will this mean on an international geopolitical level?

The historical context of the Syrian territory

Syria, located in a strategic position between Asia, Europe and Africa, has seen its modern history intertwined with the events of the Ottoman Empire, the European colonial powers and global geopolitical dynamics.

The Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918

After collapse of the Ottoman Empire, which only happened in 1918, the Syrian territory was entrusted to France as a mandate of the League of Nations.
This period was marked by a strong popular opposition against foreign domination, culminating in nationalist uprisings such as that of 1925-1927.

Syrian independence from France in 1946

Black In 1946 Syria gained independence, but the first years of its life as a sovereign state were characterised by political instability, coups and numerous internal tensions.
In the 60s, the rise of the Baath Party marked a turning point, with the establishment of an authoritarian regime which focused on Arab socialism and centralized control.

The dictatorship of 1970

In 1970, Hafez al-Assad took power, father of Bashar al-Assad, consolidating a dictatorship that would dominated the country for decades, thanks to strong military control and the support of the Alawite minority, to which he belonged.

Under Hafez's leadership, Syria positioned itself as a major player in Middle Eastern politics, maintaining a strategic balance between the superpowers and supporting allied movements in the region.
In these years internal tensions, the repression of the opposition and the lack of economic development laid the foundations for future fractures, but in general al-Assad's domination essentially put an end to coups through repression.

Hafez al-Assad remained in power until his death in 2000, when he was succeeded by him his son Bashar al-Assad.

The History of Syria Under Bashar al-Assad Since 2000

With the death of Hafez al-Assad in June 2000, Syria faced a delicate transition of power. Bashar al Assad, the youngest son and a London-trained ophthalmologist, was designated as successor, even though he had not initially been preparato for a political role.

The choice fell on him after the death of his older brother Basil, the original candidate, in a car accident in 1994.

The transfer of power was orchestrated quickly. The Syrian parliament he changed the constitution to lower the minimum age required for the presidency, allowing Bashar, then thirty-five, to run. Soon after, he was confirmed as president through a referendum that, as per the regime's tradition, recorded a result plebiscitary.

Initially, Bashar al-Assad was greeted with cautious optimism both at home and abroad. It was hoped that his younger, more “modern” leadership style could usher in a phase of political and economic opening.
This period, known as the “Damascus Spring”, saw a short loosening of repression, with the creation of intellectual forums and demands for democratic reforms.

Unfortunately, these hopes were quickly dashed. In 2001, the regime again cracked down on all opposition., arresting activists and stifling public debate.
Bashar consolidated control of the Baath Party, maintaining the patronage and authoritarian networks inherited from his father.

Under his rule, Syria faced growing economic problems, endemic corruption and social inequalities, which contributed to fueling popular discontent. Authoritarian management and concentration of power in the hands of the Assad family made the regime increasingly isolated and vulnerable.

These factors, combined with the fierce repression of the protests in 2011, laid the foundation for the outbreak of civil war.

The Arab Spring and the events that led to the civil war

In 2011, Syria was hit by the wave of Arab Springs, a wave of popular protests that they were asking reforms democratic and civil rights in several countries of the Arab world. Peaceful demonstrations in Syria began in Daraa, with the population demanding greater political freedom and the end of the corruption of the Bashar al-Assad regime, son of Hafez and in power since 2000.

The government's response was brutal.
The repression of the protests, with mass arrests, torture and killings, fueled an escalation of violence. Within a few months, the crisis turned into a full-blown civil war., with the emergence of armed rebel groups and the fragmentation of Syrian territory into areas controlled by opposing forces.

The conflict quickly attracted the interest of regional and international powers.

The position of the international superpowers in Syria

On one side, Russia and Iran supported the Assad regime, providing weapons, economic resources and direct military support.
On the other, the United States, Turkey and some Gulf monarchies supported some rebel factions. This turned Syria into a proxy battlefield, deepening internal divisions and complicating any attempt at a peaceful resolution.

At the same time, extremist groups such as the Islamic State (ISIS) exploited the power vacuum, conquering large swathes of the country and spreading terror through systematic violence and atrocities. The Syrian people, trapped between the different factions, suffered devastating consequences., with millions of displaced people and refugees around the world.

The Current Situation and the Fall of Bashar al-Assad's Regime

Towards the end of 2024, after more than a decade of civil war, Bashar al-Assad's regime has given in under the weight of a combination of internal and external pressures.
Years of conflict had already devastated the country, with a ruined economy, destroyed infrastructure and an exhausted population. The fall of the regime, however, was not sudden., but the result of a long process of erosion of central power.

Several factors contributed to the collapse:

• Deteriorating international support:
  Although Russia and Iran have supported Assad for years, Moscow's priorities have shifted towards the war in Ukraine, reducing direct involvement in Syria. Iran, caught between internal crises and international sanctions, has also limited its economic and military support.
• Internal discontent:
  After years of war and repression, discontent has spread even among the regime's traditional supporters. Local protests and defections in the armed forces have weakened government control, while areas under Damascus control have become increasingly impoverished.
• Regional rivalries:
  Turkey exploited the situation to strengthen their influence in the north of the country, supporting rebel factions and local armed groups, who ultimately played a decisive role in the final push against Assad.

With the fall of the regime, a new phase of uncertainty opens for Syria. The various factions on the ground, including rebels, Kurds and Islamist groups, remain deeply divided, making it difficult to imagine a peaceful transition or rapid reconstruction.

The new geopolitical balances and Turkey's position in the Mediterranean

With the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the Turkey emerge including one of the most influential actors in the new geopolitical configuration of the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. Ankara has played a central role in the Syrian conflict, supporting rebel groups against Assad, promoting its military operations along Syria's northern border and directly managing several areas controlled by its forces or allied militias.

Turkey's Role in the Syrian Crisis

• Territorial control: Turkey has consolidated its control over a swath of territory in northern Syria, officially justified as a security measure to repel Kurdish YPG forces (considered affiliated with the PKK, Ankara's historic enemy). These areas, including Afrin and Idlib, are now under Turkish influence, with local governance directly supported by Ankara.
• Management of the migration crisis: Turkey is home to approximately 3,6 million Syrian refugees, the largest number in the world, using the migration issue as diplomatic leverage against the European Union to obtain funds and political concessions.
• Regional mediation: With the fall of Assad, Ankara is trying to position itself as a mediator between the various Syrian factions, maintaining relations with both rebel groups and international actors such as Russia and Iran.

Turkey and the Control of the Mediterranean

Turkey's position in the Eastern Mediterranean has been greatly strengthened not only by the Syrian conflict, but also through an assertive foreign policy:

• Expansion of the maritime zone of influence:
  Through agreements such as the one with the Libyan government in Tripoli in 2019, Ankara has expanded its exclusive economic zone in the Mediterranean, competing with Greece, Cyprus and other players.
• Energy strategy:
  Turkey has stepped up natural gas exploration in disputed waters in the eastern Mediterranean, fueling tensions with the European Union and other coastal states.
• Military projection:
  Turkey’s military presence has grown, with bases and operations strengthening its grip on the region, making Ankara a central player in Eastern Mediterranean security.

What is the future prospect of Türkiye?

With a dominant role in Syria and an increasingly strong presence in the Mediterranean, Turkey is redefining its geopolitical status. But This dominance could encounter obstacles, Including:

• Competition with Russia, which sees its influence in Syria reduced.
• Tensions with the European Union, especially on issues such as human rights and the migration issue.
• Internal divisions within Syria, which could limit Turkish control over northern areas in the long term.

What are the implications for the Israeli-Palestinian war?

Turkey's new dominant position, combined with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, has significant repercussions also on the Israeli-Palestinian war. Although Syria has traditionally played a role of support for Palestinian factions, the vacuum left by the Assad regime redraws the strategic landscape of the region.

Turkey is emerging as an increasingly important player, also in this conflict, for several reasons.

Turkish support for the Palestinians

Ankara has taken an openly pro-Palestinian stance in recent years:

• Political and rhetorical support:
  President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has positioned himself as a defender of the Palestinian cause, openly criticizing Israel for its actions in the Occupied Territories and supporting the recognition of East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state.
• Financial support:
  Turkey provides humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, partly managed through affiliated organizations, to support the civilian population.

Syria's Weakening as a Palestinian Ally

The Fall of Assad deprives the Palestinians of an ally historical in the region. Damascus was a point of reference for groups such as Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which found in Syria a safe haven and a channel to receive logistical and military support from Iran.

With the regime in crisis and the Syrian territory fragmented, these organizations must now reorganize their networks.

The new regional balance will see Turkey as the protagonist

Turkey could fill, at least in part, the void left by Syria, but with a different approach:

• Mediation and diplomatic influence:
  Ankara could try to use its influence to position itself as a mediator between Palestinians and Israelis, while maintaining an openly critical profile towards Israel.
• Conflicts of interest with other actors:
  Turkey will have to balance its pro-Palestinian role with its relations with Israel, especially in the economic and energy spheres. In addition, the growing Turkish role could compete with that of Iran, a traditional supporter of the Palestinian armed factions.

What will be the impacts on the ongoing war?

At a time of sharp escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Turkey's strengthening position could:

• Exacerbating regional tensions:
  Ankara’s support for the Palestinians could push Israel to respond more forcefully, in an already highly polarized context.
• Offering an alternative channel of support to Palestinians:
  This could increase resistance from Palestinian factions, but at the cost of further tensions with Israel and the United States.
• Reshuffling regional alliances:
  Turkey's growing influence could put other Arab actors, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which have adopted more conciliatory positions toward Israel, at risk.

What will be the implications for the war in Ukraine?

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the strengthening of Türkiye in the Eastern Mediterranean have significant repercussions also on the war in Ukraine, as they influence the role of Russia and its ability to project power into multiple scenarios simultaneously.

Russia's Strategic Weakening

Moscow, Assad's main ally, has invested significant resources in Syria since 2015 to prop up the regime.

The fall of Assad represents:

• A geopolitical defeat for Russia:
  The loss of a key ally in the Middle East reduces Moscow's ability to influence the region and maintain strategic bases, such as the naval base at Tartus, essential for control of the Eastern Mediterranean.
• An erosion of resources:
  Russia has already diverted much of its economic and military resources to the war in Ukraine, and the Syrian failure further weakens its image as a reliable ally.

Turkey's Role in the Ukrainian Crisis

Turkey, already a major player in the Ukrainian conflict, has seen its position strengthened. Ankara has maintained a delicate balance between Kiev and Moscow:

• Military support to Kiev:
  Turkey supplied Bayraktar TB2 drones, which proved crucial for the Ukrainian military in the early stages of the conflict.
• Economic relations with Moscow:
  Despite support for Kiev, Turkey continues to cooperate with Russia, especially regarding natural gas and trade.

With the strengthening of its influence in Syria and the Mediterranean, Ankara could become even more relevant in the Ukrainian context, increasing its capacity for mediation or his political weight in international negotiations.

The pressure on Russia

The fall of the Assad regime further complicates Russia's position:

• Strategic distractions:
  Moscow, already focused on the war in Ukraine, now faces a scaling back of its influence in the Middle East, a blow to its global projection.
• Economic implications:
  The loss of Syria as a geopolitical platform could make Russia more vulnerable to international sanctions and economic isolation linked to the war in Ukraine.

What are the possible developments?

• Longest conflict in Ukraine:
  If Russia partially withdraws from the Middle East, it could focus more resources on the war in Ukraine, prolonging the conflict.
• Greater Turkish role:
  With a stronger influence in Syria, Turkey may seek to balance its policy between Russia and Ukraine, gaining even more weight in global scenarios.
• Regional realignments:
  The Middle East, less under Russian influence, could push other actors to review their strategies, indirectly influencing the Ukrainian conflict.

Implications for the European Union and Italy: Risk of global escalation

The fall of the Syrian regime, the strengthening of Türkiye and the protracted war in Ukraine create a complex and potentially unstable scenario that could have profound implications for the European Union (EU) and Italy.

What does this crisis in Syria mean for the EU?

• New migration crises:
  The destabilization of Syria and the fragmentation of the territory could generate new waves of refugees. The EU, already under pressure to manage past migration crises, will face further political and social challenges, with the risk of new frictions between member states over the redistribution of migrants.
• Increased dependence on Turkey:
  With Ankara assuming a dominant role in the Mediterranean and in migration flows, the EU will find itself in a position of increased vulnerability towards Turkey, which could exploit the situation to obtain economic and political concessions.
• Risk of energy destabilization:
  Competition for control of energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean could exacerbate tensions between Turkey and other European countries, such as Greece and Cyprus, requiring more forceful diplomatic intervention by the EU.

What will be the implications for Italy?

Italy, due to its geographical position and its role in the Mediterranean, will be particularly exposed:

• Migratory flows:
  The Central Mediterranean route could become even more active, putting pressure on Lampedusa and other Italian arrival points.
• Energy competition:
  With Turkey seeking to dominate energy routes in the Mediterranean, Italy may face difficulties in maintaining its strategic interests in the natural gas sector.
• Diplomatic role:
  Italy may find itself having to mediate between the interests of the EU, Turkey and North African countries, strengthening its foreign policy in the region.

Is there a further risk of global escalation to World War?

The combination of unresolved crises and new geopolitical balances fuels fears of a possible increase in global tensions:

• Conflict by proxy:
  Areas such as Syria and Ukraine remain theaters of confrontation between the great powers, risking expanding to other scenarios.
• Global polarization:
  Russia's weakening in the Middle East could push Moscow to seek new alliances and intensify confrontation with the West.
• Rising tensions between NATO and Türkiye:
  Turkey's increasingly autonomous and assertive stance could jeopardize cohesion within NATO, increasing the possibility of indirect clashes with Russia.

So, should we be worried?

Though the real risk of a world war remains reasonably low, growing instability in several regions and the lack of robust diplomatic solutions increase the danger of protracted and regional conflicts, which could have indirect global impacts.
The European Union and Italy will have to strengthen their diplomatic position and work towards a shared management of crises, promoting dialogue between the parties involved to avoid an uncontrolled escalation.