Eurovision 2025, who will win according to the odds and statistics

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The final ofEuro Vision Song Contest 2025 is upon us and with it the expectations are growing as to who will climb onto the top step of the podium Basel. The European bookmakers they already draw a clear map of the favourites and, surprisingly, theItaly di Lucio Corsi is not among the main candidates for victory. Despite the success with the public and streaming, the Tuscan singer-songwriter remains in marginal position in the shares.

KAJ for Sweden: Irony and Nordic rhythms at the top of the odds

In the first place we find the Sweden, represented by the comedy-musical trio KAJ with the song “Bara Bada Bastu”. The group won over the audience with a mix of irony, Scandinavian culture and catchy rhythm, presenting a song dedicated to the pleasure of the sauna. odds fluctuate between 1.91 and 2.18, for a probability of victory around 38%.

Sweden, with seven victories to his credit, could therefore achieve the eighth victory in the history of the competition, consolidating its primacy in the modern Eurovision.

Austria and the Netherlands chase: Electronic ballads and multiculturalism

In second place in the predictions we find theAustria, with JJ and its “Wasted Love”, electro-pop ballad with a strong emotional impact. Its shares stand at an average of 3.6, For a 22% probabilityThe Austrian artist aims for an intense and visually curated performance, built on an engaging musical crescendo.

On the third step of the provisional podium are the Netherlands, represented by Claude with the song “It's Life”. The song, performed in French and English, tells a journey of personal rebirth and has an estimated probability of8%, according to average estimates from international betting centres.

France and Israel complete the top 5

Fourth and fifth position for France e IsraelFrance deploys louane within “Maman”, an intimate song dedicated to the bond between mother and daughter, while Israel participates with Yuval Raphael and the song “A new day will rise”, a message of hope in difficult times. The odds see them respectively at 6% and 4% of probability.

Italy out of the favorites, but at the top in streaming

Despite not being among the top five favourites, theItaly continues to shine on digital platforms. The song of Lucio Corsi, I wanted to be tough, has exceeded the 39 million plays on Spotify, resulting among the most listened to among those in the competition.

Its position in the shares, however, remains low: share 101, with only the1% chance of winning. Also Gabry Bridge, which competes for San Marino with “Tutta l'Italia”, it is among the least popular, despite the strong media exposure and public support.

The Margin of Uncertainty: Eurovision is Always a Surprise

Although the odds provide an initial picture of the favourites, theEurovision is known for its twists and turns. Ranking changes, unexpected exploits and the power of the international televoting can overturn all predictions. The charm of the event also lies here: no result is a foregone conclusion.