Who will win Eurovision 2026, according to odds and polls? Here's the ranking.

A few hours after the start of theEuro Vision Song Contest 2026 In Vienna, bookmakers' odds offer a first snapshot of the possible favorites for the final victory. According to the comparison reported by superscommesse.it, the Finland is the country to beat, with a much lower average share than the other competitors and the song “Flame thrower” at the top of operators' forecasts.

Italy, represented by Sal Da Vinci with “Forever yes”, however, remains further back in the grid of favorites. Its share, after some fluctuations, has returned above double figures on most operators, with an average indicated at 18.00 and a maximum share in the image comparison equal to 26.00.

Who is the favourite to win Eurovision 2026?

Finland is the main favourite to win Eurovision 2026 according to bookmakers' odds., with an average share indicated around 2.03 and a maximum share in the image comparison equal to 2.10The song in competition is “Flame thrower”, indicated as the strongest proposal in the pre-final phase.

The data is stark because the gap with other countries is so large. Such low odds, in betting parlance, indicate that operators consider that victory more likely than the alternatives, though it doesn't make it a given. Eurovision remains a complex competition, where televoting, juries, staging, the order of appearances, and the audience's emotional reaction can shift the balance of power right up to the last minute.

The correct reading is this: Finland starts as the favourite according to the bookmakers, but the odds are not a certainty on the winner, but rather a market estimate before the decisive evening..

Following closely behind are Greece and Denmark, which the source lists as the main alternatives. The table shown in the image confirms a group of pursuers with higher odds, perceived as less likely than Finland, but still ahead of Italy in the operators' assessments.

Where is Sal Da Vinci in the odds?

Sal Da Vinci is not among the top favourites according to the reported odds, because Italy is listed in double digits on most operators. The average share attributed to the victory of “Forever yes” è 18.00, while in the image table Italy appears with the maximum share 26.00 in the Superscommesse comparison.

The source also reports a fluctuating trend: Italy's share had started from over 30.00, then it had dropped below the level 10.00, then rising above double digits. This movement reflects an unstable perception of the song: at some points, interest in Sal Da Vinci increased, but at the time of the survey, operators placed it behind several countries.

The point to remember is that Sal Da Vinci is not out of the running, but according to the bookmakers he starts behind Finland, Greece, Denmark and other competitors indicated with more competitive odds.

High odds can be interpreted in two ways. On the one hand, it signals a lower perceived probability of victory; on the other, it indicates that, if the song were to surprise in the final, the result would be considered less likely. In the case of Italy, the weight of Sanremo and the recognition of its representative are not enough, at least for now, to push "Per sempre sì" among the lowest odds.

Which countries are ahead of Italy according to bookmakers?

According to the reported odds, ahead of Italy are Finland, Greece, Denmark, France, Australia and Israel, with lower values ​​than those attributed to Sal Da Vinci. The source indicates Finland as the favorite, followed by Greece and Denmark, while France, Australia, and Israel still precede Italy in the bookmakers' rankings.

In the attached image, the table shows the highest odds in the Superscommesse comparison for some countries: Finlandia 2.10, Greece 7.50, Denmark 7.50, France 16.00, Australia 20.00, Israel 25.00, Italia 26.00, Romania 33.00, malt 40.00 e Sweden 50.00.

The odds ranking does not coincide with an artistic ranking, but rather a snapshot of the way in which bookmakers evaluate the chances of winning before the final result..

The most interesting finding is Italy's position, close to Israel in the table above, but far from the lowest odds assigned to Finland. This means that Sal Da Vinci is considered a potential outsider, not a clear favorite, at least at the time of the survey.

What do the highest odds shown in the table say?

The image table shows the highest odds in the Superscommesse comparison for some of the main competing countries, and returns a fairly clear hierarchy: Finland far ahead, Greece and Denmark in the first group of pursuers, then France, Australia, Israel and Italy with higher values.

The "highest share" figure should not be confused with the average share. In the source text, for example, Italy is indicated with a average price 18.00, while in the attached table it appears to 26.00 as the highest available price in the comparison. These are two different pieces of information: the average summarizes the performance among operators, while the maximum price shows the highest value found among the proposals considered.

The difference between the average odds and the highest odds is important: saying that Italy is at 18.00 as an average does not contradict the presence of an odds of 26.00 in the table, because they are two different ways of reading the market..

For readers unfamiliar with betting, the principle is simple: the lower the odds, the more likely the outcome is considered by bookmakers; the higher the odds, the less likely the outcome is considered. This is why Finland, at 2.10 in the table, appears much more favored than Italy at 26.00.

Eurovision 2026 Winner Odds: List of Potential Favorites

The list of quotas shows Finland far ahead of other countries, while Sal Da Vinci's Italy is further behind, in the outsider bracket. The values ​​shown in the image refer to the highest odds in the Superscommesse comparison, therefore they do not always coincide with the average share indicated in the source text.

Here is an overview of the possible winners according to the table:

• Finland: share 2.10
• Greece: share 7.50
• Denmark: share 7.50
• France: share 16.00
• Australia: share 20.00
• Israel: share 25.00
• Italy: share 26.00
• Romania: share 33.00
• Malta: share 40.00
• Sweden: share 50.00

The reading is immediate: the lower the odds, the more the country is considered the favorite by the bookmakers; the higher the odds, the less likely the victory is considered in that phase of the market.For this reason, Finland appears to be the main candidate for success, while Italy, although still among the monitored countries, does not start in the top tier of favorites.

Why can the odds change before the final?

Odds can change quickly because Eurovision depends on many factors that are updated right up until the final.Between rehearsals, semi-finals, social media reactions, press comments, setlist placement, and perceptions of the live performance, a song can rise or fall in ratings in just a few hours, especially if the rehearsals are convincing or disappointing.

In the case of Italy, the source already reports a significant trend: Sal Da Vinci started above 30.00, fell below 10.00, and then returned to double digits. This movement indicates that the market has repeatedly reassessed its chances, likely based on the attention surrounding the song and the information that emerged in the run-up to the competition.

An artist's Eurovision share measures not only the song, but also the moment: rehearsals, hype, order of appearance, international perception and public response can change the value right up until the final night..

For this reason, using the odds as a definitive prediction would be wrong. They're useful for understanding who's considered the favorite, but they don't replace the actual outcome of the match, which will only be determined after the jury and public votes.

Can Sal Da Vinci still surprise?

Sal Da Vinci can still surprise, but according to the current odds he is not among the main favourites to winHis double-digit position indicates that bookmakers are eyeing other more competitive options, particularly Finland, Greece, and Denmark, but it doesn't rule out a good placing if his final performance manages to impress the public and judging panel.

The song “Forever yes” arrives at Eurovision after winning the Festival of Sanremo, therefore, carries with it strong Italian legitimacy. The challenge, however, is different: a winning song in the Sanremo context must also work in front of a European audience, often accustomed to highly visual, immediate performances, crafted for an international competition.

Italy's margin of surprise will depend on their performance in the final: Sal Da Vinci will have to transform a song that has already won awards in Italy into a performance capable of making an impression even outside the Sanremo audience..

His placement at the end of the lineup may help him in terms of television memory, but it's not enough on its own. The odds suggest a tough start, while the real competition will be played out on stage, during the three minutes of the performance and then in the voting.