Recently, a notice from the Civil Protection and the Major Risks Commission has raised interest and concern about volcanic activity in the Campi Flegrei. The statement hints at a possible move to the level of orange alert if the current situation persists.
But what does this warning really mean? This article aims to clarify the meaning of these statements and provide scientific context for reassure the population.
The phenomenon of bradyseism is not due to magma
Il bradyseism is a geological phenomenon that typically involves the raising or lowering of the ground connected to the movements of underground fluids, not to the movements of the magma. It is not necessarily an indicator of imminent volcanic activity.
However, the recent advisory links bradyseism tounderlying magmatic activity.
The connection with magma in the text
According to the statement, the magma it would be involved in the bradyseismic process of soil uplift.
It is a thesis that can generate confusion, as in traditional scientific understanding bradyseism is often dissociated from magmatic activity. Instead, the lifting of the soil it is linked to the dynamics of underground fluids.
The most recent theory currently supported instead sees the cause of the phenomenon in the variations in heating of the water tables interposed to the superficial crust, where increases or decreases in temperature would cause a greater or lesser pressure of the water vapor trapped in the subsoil with consequent deformations of the superficial crust[
Wikipedia
Doubts and ambiguities in the statement
Why then is magma mentioned in relation to bradyseism? It could be a way to emphasize the complexity and dynamism of the situation, underlining the need for a constant monitoring by the competent institutions.
Given that scientifically we know that there is no correlation between bradyseism and magma, most likely the Civil Protection it was simply explained badly on this passage.
We remind you that the most recent bulletin is very clear in this sense:
Based on the current picture of volcanic activity outlined above, no elements are highlighted that suggest significant short-term developments. […] Subsequently, and until approximately mid-October, the speeds of the uplift have returned to their previous values registered in 2023, while in the last 15 days there is a general slowing down of the deformation process which can be confirmed with data from the coming weeks
In short, there is no alarmism
The warning It doesn't mean a super eruption is approaching or a natural disaster of epic proportions. Rather, it serves as a reminder that the situation is constantly evolving and that it is essential to stay updated and prepared for any developments.
The object of National Civil Protection System and the other institutions involved is precisely to guarantee the safety and well-being of the population, through careful risk assessment and adequate prevention plans.
We thank the Geologist Jacopo Brocchieri for help in understanding the subject.
